Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026: Storms, Names and Forecast
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is having its quietest start in almost 40 years. As of late August there have been four named storms, Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and a short-lived Dolly, and no hurricanes at all, when an average season has its fourth storm by August 15 and its first hurricane by August 11. An intensifying El Nino is the main brake, adding wind shear that tears storms apart before they organise. NOAA's August update calls for 7 to 13 named storms and a 75 percent chance of a below-normal season; CSU forecasts nine. The season runs to November 30 and peaks around September 10. Sources: NOAA, Colorado State University, National Hurricane Center, weather.com, Fox Weather.
The context
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is running well behind schedule, and the numbers are unusually stark. As of late August, four named storms have formed and none of them became a hurricane. In an average year the fourth named storm arrives by August 15 and the first hurricane by August 11, which puts 2026 behind on both counts as the season heads into its busiest stretch.
By accumulated cyclone energy, the metric that combines how strong storms get and how long they last, this is the quietest start in almost four decades. Only four seasons since 1966 opened more slowly: 1988, 1984, 1977 and 1967. The four storms so far have been brief. Arthur came in mid-June, Bertha around the turn of the month, Cristobal in mid-August, and Dolly formed on August 27 and had already fallen apart into an open tropical wave by the following morning.
The main reason is El Nino. As the Pacific pattern intensifies, it drives stronger upper-level winds over the Atlantic, and that wind shear pulls apart a developing storm before its circulation can stack up and strengthen. Dry air spilling off Africa has added a second brake, disrupting the tropical waves that normally seed the biggest Atlantic hurricanes. The Main Development Region between West Africa and the Caribbean, usually the engine room of the season, has produced very little.
The seasonal forecasts have moved with the pattern. NOAA’s August 6 update calls for 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and at most two major hurricanes, with a 75 percent chance of a below-normal season. Colorado State University holds at nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane. Both are noticeably under the long-term averages.
None of which makes the rest of the season safe. Seasonal totals describe the basin, not any particular coastline, and September is climatologically the peak, with the statistical high point around September 10. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring areas of the Atlantic for development, and a single landfalling storm matters far more to the place it hits than the year’s final count. The season officially runs until November 30. Sources: NOAA, Colorado State University, National Hurricane Center, weather.com, Fox Weather.